Alternative Premier League table after nine games, based on expected goals

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Alternative Premier League table after nine games, based on expected goals


REALITY?

This is how stats experts think the Premier League table SHOULD look, after nine matches

Much has been said about Arsenal’s start to the Premier League season.

The Gunners, under new boss Unai Emery, have managed to rack up an impressive seven wins, with just two losses – to Manchester City and Chelsea.

Unai Emery has guided Arsenal to fourth in the Premier League table, but have they been treated to a run of easy fixtures?

Unai Emery has guided Arsenal to fourth in the Premier League table, but have they been treated to a run of easy fixtures?

In the growing age of analytics though, it doesn’t look quite as rosy. They are, according to statistics, over-performing.

The use of expected goals helps us take a deeper look at the quality of a team’s chances and, looking at this, Emery’s side are scoring far more than anticipated allowing them to sneak possibly undeserved victories.

So, how does the real table compare with the statistical expectation? Find out how the stats believe the Premier League SHOULD be shaping up below…

Expected goals (xG) is a football statistic that attempts to reveal the precise score of every game using the quality of chances created. If a team has a high xG but low goals scored they were wasteful, whereas a low xG but high goals scored suggests they are performing far better in front of goal than they should be.

Using expected goals, which you can learn more about here, and data from Understat, we present how the table should look after four games, according to the stats experts.


20. Burnley – Real position = 13
Real points = 8 | Expected points = 7.22

19. Huddersfield Town – Real position = 19
Real points = 3 | Expected points = 7.36

18. Fulham – Real position = 18
Real points = 5 | Expected points = 7.70

The Cottagers are struggling at the moment.

The Cottagers are struggling at the moment.

17. Newcastle United – Real position = 20
Real points = 2 | Expected points = 7.79

16. Brighton and Hove Albion – Real position = 12
Real points = 11 | Expected points = 8.11

15. Southampton – Real position = 16
Real points = 6 | Expected points = 9.35

14. West Ham – Real position = 14
Real points = 7 | Expected points = 9.46

13. Crystal Palace – Real position = 15
Real points = 7 | Expected points = 9.53

Even Wilfried Zaha could help the Eagles against Everton.

Even Wilfried Zaha could help the Eagles against Everton.

12. Cardiff City – Real position = 17
Real points = 5 | Expected points = 9.83

11. Leicester City – Real position = 11

Real points = 12 | Expected points = 11.44

10. Manchester United – Real position = 10
Real points = 14 | Expected points = 12.22

Man United are underperforming according every table going

Man United are underperforming according every table going

9. Everton – Real position = 8
Real points = 15 | Expected points = 12.67

8. Watford – Real position = 7
Real points = 16 | Expected points = 12.90

7. Arsenal – Real position = 4
Real points = 12 | Expected points = 13.36

6. Wolverhampton Wanderers – Real position = 9
Real points = 15 | Expected points = 14.75

Wolves defender Matt Doherty is doing the business in the Premier League

Wolves defender Matt Doherty is doing the business in the Premier League

5.Tottenham Hotspur – Real position = 5
Real points = 21 | Expected points = 16.95

4. Bournemouth – Real position = 6
Real points = 17 | Expected points = 17.41

Ryan Fraser’s excellent form has been a highlight for the Cherries this campaign.

Ryan Fraser’s excellent form has been a highlight for the Cherries this campaign.

3. Chelsea – Real position = 3
Real points = 21 | Expected points = 18.43

2. Liverpool – Real position = 2
Real points = 23 | Expected points = 18.67

1. Manchester City – Real position = 1
Real points = 23 | Expected points = 23.82





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